Political analysts detail candidates’ likely strategies
By Eric Green
Washington -- Senator John McCain and the man he is expected to face in November for the presidency, Senator Barack Obama, are presenting contrasting philosophies on whether to negotiate with hostile foreign dictators and rogue leaders, with the question becoming which position will be more attractive to American voters, according to a leading political analyst.
Illinois Senator Obama has stated his willingness to meet with Cuba’s Raúl Castro and Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. McCain, a senator from Arizona, opposes such talks, saying Obama’s stance would only embolden America’s “implacable foes.”
Norman Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in Washington, spoke recently with America.gov.
Ornstein, also an election analyst with the CBS Television Network, said, “What we know is that Americans, in principle, like the idea of talking to others, including adversaries; in that sense, Obama is on the right side of public opinion.”
The issue, said Ornstein, involves whether Obama’s approach -- “direct talks by the president, not surrogates, with no preconditions, only prearrangements -- will be seen as a sign of naiveté and inexperience.”
Ornstein said that to date, it appears Obama “has handled the issue adroitly enough. But more pitfalls remain, including making distinctions between Ahmadinejad” and the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist groups, “and between Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders.”
For McCain, Ornstein said, the question is whether his attack on Obama on this issue looks like President Bush’s “policy of not talking to adversaries,” or whether the attempt to make a distinction between a U.S. secretary of state’s talking to a foreign adversary instead of a president “will resonate at all with voters.”
NBC ANALYST SAYS CANDIDATES USING NEGATIVE STEREOTYPES OF OPPONENT
Chuck Todd, political director for the NBC television network, told America.gov that the two candidates are trying to paint each other with negative stereotypes on whether an American president should meet with hostile foreign leaders.
Todd said the back-and-forth between the two candidates raises the question of which stereotype will prevail with U.S. voters.
Regarding Iran, Obama has claimed he never said he would talk directly with Ahmadinejad, only with Iranian leaders. This parsing of words, said Todd, might lead to a debate about who exactly is the leader of Iran.
In Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, said Todd, the Illinois senator sought to portray his opponent, Hillary Clinton, as “very Bush-like” and wanted to contrast his fresh take on foreign policy with the approach of the New York senator.
Obama “made some commitments that I think he wishes he had back, frankly,” said Todd. But Todd said Obama “thinks he can win” the argument about negotiating with dictators by saying McCain adheres too closely to President Bush’s more unilateral, hard-line foreign policy.
VIRGINIA POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS MCCAIN FACES TOUGH BATTLE
Political analyst Larry Sabato told America.gov that McCain “obviously has a very tough battle under adverse conditions that face any Republican” who runs for elected office in 2008.
McCain’s best tactic against Obama is charging the Democrat with inexperience, “especially as it applies to foreign affairs, the military, defense and national security,” said Sabato, a University of Virginia professor of politics.
Sabato said McCain’s job “is to paint Obama as too risky” and lacking “the experience to make rational and thoughtful decisions in the nation’s interests.”
McCain could employ the word “naïve” over and over again to define Obama, said Sabato, adding that other likely charges include “gullible and too trusting of these evil dictators around the world who would gladly slit our throats if they had the opportunity.”
Sabato said Obama could respond by casting himself in the youthful image of a new generation of leadership similar to that exemplified by John F. Kennedy, who said in his January 1961 presidential inaugural address that America should “never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.”
McCain’s strategy is to press his argument about not negotiating with hostile dictators in such conservative-leaning states with large numbers of military personnel as Virginia, Sabato continued.
The Arizona senator also could try to make this appeal in Florida, Sabato said, which has conservative voters attached to the state’s many military installations and a large Cuban-American population that objects to talking to Cuba’s communist leaders.
For additional information, see “Candidates on the Issues.”
By Eric Green
Washington -- Senator John McCain and the man he is expected to face in November for the presidency, Senator Barack Obama, are presenting contrasting philosophies on whether to negotiate with hostile foreign dictators and rogue leaders, with the question becoming which position will be more attractive to American voters, according to a leading political analyst.
Illinois Senator Obama has stated his willingness to meet with Cuba’s Raúl Castro and Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. McCain, a senator from Arizona, opposes such talks, saying Obama’s stance would only embolden America’s “implacable foes.”
Norman Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in Washington, spoke recently with America.gov.
Ornstein, also an election analyst with the CBS Television Network, said, “What we know is that Americans, in principle, like the idea of talking to others, including adversaries; in that sense, Obama is on the right side of public opinion.”
The issue, said Ornstein, involves whether Obama’s approach -- “direct talks by the president, not surrogates, with no preconditions, only prearrangements -- will be seen as a sign of naiveté and inexperience.”
Ornstein said that to date, it appears Obama “has handled the issue adroitly enough. But more pitfalls remain, including making distinctions between Ahmadinejad” and the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist groups, “and between Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders.”
For McCain, Ornstein said, the question is whether his attack on Obama on this issue looks like President Bush’s “policy of not talking to adversaries,” or whether the attempt to make a distinction between a U.S. secretary of state’s talking to a foreign adversary instead of a president “will resonate at all with voters.”
NBC ANALYST SAYS CANDIDATES USING NEGATIVE STEREOTYPES OF OPPONENT
Chuck Todd, political director for the NBC television network, told America.gov that the two candidates are trying to paint each other with negative stereotypes on whether an American president should meet with hostile foreign leaders.
Todd said the back-and-forth between the two candidates raises the question of which stereotype will prevail with U.S. voters.
Regarding Iran, Obama has claimed he never said he would talk directly with Ahmadinejad, only with Iranian leaders. This parsing of words, said Todd, might lead to a debate about who exactly is the leader of Iran.
In Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, said Todd, the Illinois senator sought to portray his opponent, Hillary Clinton, as “very Bush-like” and wanted to contrast his fresh take on foreign policy with the approach of the New York senator.
Obama “made some commitments that I think he wishes he had back, frankly,” said Todd. But Todd said Obama “thinks he can win” the argument about negotiating with dictators by saying McCain adheres too closely to President Bush’s more unilateral, hard-line foreign policy.
VIRGINIA POLITICAL ANALYST SAYS MCCAIN FACES TOUGH BATTLE
Political analyst Larry Sabato told America.gov that McCain “obviously has a very tough battle under adverse conditions that face any Republican” who runs for elected office in 2008.
McCain’s best tactic against Obama is charging the Democrat with inexperience, “especially as it applies to foreign affairs, the military, defense and national security,” said Sabato, a University of Virginia professor of politics.
Sabato said McCain’s job “is to paint Obama as too risky” and lacking “the experience to make rational and thoughtful decisions in the nation’s interests.”
McCain could employ the word “naïve” over and over again to define Obama, said Sabato, adding that other likely charges include “gullible and too trusting of these evil dictators around the world who would gladly slit our throats if they had the opportunity.”
Sabato said Obama could respond by casting himself in the youthful image of a new generation of leadership similar to that exemplified by John F. Kennedy, who said in his January 1961 presidential inaugural address that America should “never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.”
McCain’s strategy is to press his argument about not negotiating with hostile dictators in such conservative-leaning states with large numbers of military personnel as Virginia, Sabato continued.
The Arizona senator also could try to make this appeal in Florida, Sabato said, which has conservative voters attached to the state’s many military installations and a large Cuban-American population that objects to talking to Cuba’s communist leaders.
For additional information, see “Candidates on the Issues.”
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